Live market readUpdated Oct 20, 2:35 AM EDT

Current quote-based regime · state 4 of 9

SPY input: 2026-10-19 · VIX quote: Oct 19, 3:00 AM EDT. Inputs may not be synchronized completed closes.

The tape is mixed.

Chop, neutral bias.

No clear directional edge. Size down; wait for a better tape.

Market posture

Neutral
4/9
Confidence
8%
Close-state sessions
2
Close-state flip
Oct 16

The four readings that matter

What is driving today's regime.

Plain-English status first. The underlying readings stay visible for anyone who wants the detail.

Market fear

VIX

Normal
18.4
-1.55 day over day

Short-term momentum

Fast SQN · 4 weeks

Bearish
-0.36
-0.45 day over day

Long-term trend

Slow SQN · 5 months

Positive
+0.31
+0.06 day over day

Credit conditions

HYG / LQD · 20-day trend

Softening
-0.25%
+0.47% day over day

Membership lens

How the active systems use this read.

This public page shows market context, not member signals. Portfolio posture and changes are available in the member dashboard. Intraday algorithmic signals are delivered in the members-only Slack channel.

Momentum Rotator

Leadership allocation

Uses regime and relative strength as context for its 10-trading-day model-book review. It changes only when the target allocation changes.

TrendLock

Regime exposure

Uses the market environment to govern when trend exposure is available and when the correct posture is to stand down.

SwingHunter

Swing-trade model

Applies its documented swing-trading rules on a separate cadence. Its model-account evidence remains source-labeled and separate from hypothetical backtests.

Monthly Flip

Calendar effect

Acts only inside its documented calendar window and remains inactive when that setup is absent.

Crisis Hunter

Capitulation setups

Waits for rare crisis conditions. Normal and mixed markets can leave it inactive for long periods by design.

Last 30 sessions

See the path, not just the point.

Latest completed-close state: 4 (2026-10-19). 2 sessions in that close state; last verified flip 2026-10-16. Current quote-based state 4 may differ. History uses same-session cash VIX closes; unavailable observations remain gaps.

Most recent observation: 2026-10-19

Completed-close states. Dashed columns mark unavailable observations; lines never bridge gaps.

BULLISH ZONEBEARISH ZONE1 · Bull strong2 · Bull expanding3 · Bull stalling4 · Chop neutral5 · Chop bearish6 · Bear stalling7 · Bear expanding8 · Bear strong9 · Crisis2026-09-08: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 15.722026-09-09: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 16.462026-09-10: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 17.842026-09-11: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 15.842026-09-14: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 17.12026-09-15: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 17.22026-09-16: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 17.712026-09-17: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 15.442026-09-18: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 14.812026-09-21: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 14.872026-09-22: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 14.212026-09-23: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 15.182026-09-24: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 15.672026-09-25: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 14.872026-09-28: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 16.072026-09-29: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 16.042026-09-30: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 16.342026-10-01: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 16.392026-10-02: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 15.312026-10-05: completed-close state 5, cash VIX 15.522026-10-06: completed-close state 3, cash VIX 15.012026-10-07: completed-close state 2, cash VIX 15.082026-10-08: completed-close state 3, cash VIX 15.412026-10-09: completed-close state 7, cash VIX 14.842026-10-12: completed-close state 2, cash VIX 15.212026-10-13: completed-close state 3, cash VIX 15.272026-10-14: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 16.872026-10-15: completed-close state 7, cash VIX 16.462026-10-16: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 19.992026-10-19: completed-close state 4, cash VIX 18.444Sep 8Sep 14Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Oct 6Oct 12Oct 19

Regime ladder

Nine states. One current position.

The highlighted card is today. Green states favor risk, amber states call for restraint, and red states turn defensive.

01

Bull momentum, strong

Trends are aligned across timeframes; risk appetite is strongest.

02

Bull momentum, expanding

Momentum is building; pullbacks remain within a supportive tape.

03

Bull, stalling

Trend intact, but short-term momentum is fading.

04Today

Chop, neutral bias

Mean-reversion conditions; directional conviction is lower.

05

Chop, bearish bias

Bearish chop; rallies are less reliable and dip-buying carries more risk.

06

Bear, stalling

The downtrend remains intact; long-momentum conditions are weak.

07

Bear momentum, expanding

Defensive conditions are strengthening.

08

Bear momentum, strong

Risk-off conditions; trend-long exposure is least supported.

09

Crisis

Volatility and breadth capitulation.

Methodology

Two SQN readings. Nine states.

Fast SQN captures the last four weeks. Slow SQN captures the last five months. Their direction, slope, and divergence define the base regime.

Volatility and credit conditions add context. A crisis override activates when market stress moves beyond the normal bearish ladder.

Read the methodology →Review performance →

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