Current regime · state 3 of 9
The tape is supportive.
Bull, stalling.
Trend intact but short-term fatigue. Tighten stops on existing longs.
Market posture
The four readings that matter
What is driving today's regime.
Plain-English status first. The underlying readings stay visible for anyone who wants the detail.
Market fear
VIX
Short-term momentum
Fast SQN · 4 weeks
Long-term trend
Slow SQN · 5 months
Credit conditions
HYG / LQD · 20-day trend
System posture
What the systems are doing about it.
One market read, translated into the operating posture for each system.
Trend signals are in play.
All cash with no positions.
60% of a full position used.
Last 30 sessions
See the path, not just the point.
The classifier has spent 6 sessions in state 3.
Regime ladder
Nine states. One current position.
The highlighted card is today. Green states favor risk, amber states call for restraint, and red states turn defensive.
Bull momentum, strong
Trends aligned across timeframes. Press longs.
Bull momentum, expanding
Momentum building. Add on pullbacks.
Bull, stalling
Trend intact, but short-term momentum is fading.
Chop, neutral bias
Mean-reversion conditions. Reduce size.
Chop, bearish bias
Rip-sells favored over dip-buys.
Bear, stalling
Downtrend intact. Avoid momentum longs.
Bear momentum, expanding
Defensive positioning favored.
Bear momentum, strong
Risk-off. Trend longs stand down.
Crisis
Volatility and breadth capitulation.
Methodology
Two SQN readings. Nine states.
Fast SQN captures the last four weeks. Slow SQN captures the last five months. Their direction, slope, and divergence define the base regime.
Volatility and credit conditions add context. A crisis override activates when market stress moves beyond the normal bearish ladder.
Before the open
Get this read in your inbox every weekday.
The free Daily Brief turns the regime, momentum, and risk readings into a concise morning operating plan.
Get the Daily Regime Brief.
Free. No credit card. Unsubscribe in one click.