July 2026 Live Performance Recap

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. This is a live performance and process update for Pollinate Trading systems. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged ETFs and systematic strategies involves substantial risk of loss.

This is the first monthly live performance recap I am comfortable publishing.

That distinction matters.

For a while, the site had a mix of old backtest language, live strategy rows, Collective2 verification links, and internal research tables. Some of it was useful. Some of it was not clean enough to put in front of a serious trader without caveats.

So the first job was not to write a victory lap.

The first job was to clean up the source of truth.

As of this recap, the public performance numbers come from the canonical performance API. If a number is not clean enough to publish, it stays blank. That is the rule.

The current live snapshot

As of the canonical performance record generated July 4, 2026:

• TrendLock live return: +8.62% since the internal live start date of November 1, 2025.
• TrendLock closed/live trade count: 13.
• TrendLock open positions: 3.
• TrendLock win rate: 53.85%.
• TrendLock max drawdown: -1.76%.
• TrendLock average hold: 17.43 days.
• VoltAIc live return: +24.19% since the internal live start date of February 9, 2026.
• VoltAIc CAGR, from the current ingested equity curve: 73.92%.
• VoltAIc max drawdown: -13.05%.
• VoltAIc Sharpe: 2.37.
• Portfolio live blend: +16.41%.
• Portfolio included sleeves: TrendLock and VoltAIc.
• Portfolio excluded sleeve: SwingHunter.

The portfolio number is intentionally conservative. It uses only sleeves with canonical numeric live metrics. Right now that means TrendLock and VoltAIc are included. SwingHunter is excluded because the canonical SwingHunter return is still withheld until a verified Collective2 equity ingest exists.

That is not me hiding a bad number or manufacturing a good one.

It is the opposite.

SwingHunter has raw internal rows, but those rows include legacy and research buckets. Publishing them as verified live performance would be sloppy. Until the verified equity ingest exists, SwingHunter gets a verification link and an audit record, not a synthetic return number.

What TrendLock includes

TrendLock is no longer treated as one vague number.

The canonical record treats TrendLock as the live subscription made up of its component engines: Momentum, Monthly Flip, and Crisis Hunter. That means the top-line TrendLock figure is built from live signal records, not from a marketing backtest.

Monthly Flip now has its own component ledger inside the record.

Monthly Flip currently shows:

• Closed trades: 6.
• Open positions: 1.
• Live component return: +5.36%.
• Win rate: 50.00%.
• Max drawdown: -3.38%.
• Average hold: 12.83 days.

The closed Monthly Flip trades in the canonical ledger are:

• QQQ long, January 22 to February 16: -2.33%.
• QQQ long, February 24 to February 24: +0.06%.
• QQQ long, February 27 to March 16: -1.14%.
• QQQ long, April 27 to April 27: 0.00%.
• QQQ long, April 28 to May 15: +7.81%.
• QQQ long, May 28 to June 15: +1.14%.

There is also one open Monthly Flip QQQ long from June 26 at 706.52.

The important detail: Monthly Flip is not computed from shared Collective2 QQQ account fills. TrendLock and Monthly Flip share a Collective2 strategy/account path, so account-level QQQ history can contain stale or manual exposure. The Monthly Flip performance ledger uses explicit Monthly Flip signal rows. The Collective2 dispatch rows are audit-only.

Crisis Hunter also has a component ledger now.

Current Crisis Hunter live state:

• Closed trades: 0.
• Open positions: 0.
• Live return: not applicable yet.
• PositionState active rows: 0.

That is boring, but it is the right kind of boring. Crisis Hunter is supposed to wait for stress. No panic event, no forced trade.

What changed this month

The biggest update is not a trade.

The biggest update is that the performance surface is now much harder to abuse.

The site now has a canonical performance record for:

• TrendLock.
• Monthly Flip.
• Crisis Hunter.
• SwingHunter audit status.
• VoltAIc live equity.
• Portfolio-level aggregation.

The guardrail is simple: if a performance claim is not rebuilt from the canonical source, it should not be on the public site.

That means no more stale combined backtest chart on the portfolio page. No more raw SwingHunter table math presented as live verified performance. No more unlabelled blending of research, backtest, live, and audit data.

What I am not claiming

I am not claiming this is a long-term portfolio backtest.

I am not claiming the +16.41% portfolio blend is a synchronized daily rebalance curve.

I am not claiming SwingHunter has a public live return number yet.

I am not claiming these results predict the next month.

The current portfolio blend is a live source-of-truth blend across sleeves with publishable metrics. It normalizes across TrendLock and VoltAIc because those are the sleeves with canonical numeric live returns today. SwingHunter remains excluded until the verified equity ingest is in place.

That makes the number less flashy.

Good.

The point of this recap is not to make the biggest possible claim. The point is to make a claim we can defend.

The read-through

The current picture is healthy but early.

TrendLock is positive with a modest drawdown and a little over half of trades winning. Monthly Flip has done its job so far: a few small losses, one flat, and one larger winner that carried the component positive. Crisis Hunter has not had a reason to act. VoltAIc is the strongest sleeve on live equity so far, but it also carries the larger drawdown.

That is what a multi-system portfolio is supposed to look like.

Not every sleeve fires at once.

Not every sleeve has the same risk profile.

Not every system gets forced into every market.

The job is to keep the records clean, the labels honest, and the process repeatable.

That is the standard for the monthly recaps going forward.

Source labels

The numbers in this recap come from:

• /api/public/performance-records
• /api/public/portfolio-live-stats
• TrendLock source: internal live Signal table, paired per engine and ticker.
• Monthly Flip source: Signal rows with metadata.source=monthly_flip_cron and metadata.signalType=monthly_flip.
• Crisis Hunter source: Signal rows with metadata.signalType=buy_the_dip from buy_the_dip_cron and crisis_hunter_v2_monitor.
• SwingHunter source: Collective2 verification only until C2 equity ingest exists; raw SwingHunterSignal rows are audit-only.
• VoltAIc source: VoltAIc equity ingest plus Collective2 verification.

If those sources change, the next recap should say so explicitly.